We The People have won! The victory of the people of Egypt IS the victory of every Earthizens. Congratulations people, and a special salute to our Egyptian brothers and sisters.

Who/Whats next?

The 11 Countries to Follow the Path of Egypt

Article by Gregory White – www.businessinsider.com

The Fall Of A DictatorEgypt’s President Hosni Mubarak just resigned after weeks of dramatic protests in Cairo and across Egypt.

As the biggest country in the Arab world, Egypt is seen as a trend leader for the broader Middle East.

So the question on everyone’s mind is: who’s next?

The Egyptian revolution is a challenge to state led authoritarian capitalism, but it is also a response to rising food costs and soaring unemployment. There is also the social media factor, which has allowed protesters to circumvent traditional state run media sources and organize more efficiently.

What countries offer a similar mixture to that found in Egypt? And what investments are at stake?

Morocco: Reforms already lined up

Investments to watch: SPDR S&P Emerging Middle East & Africa ETF (GAF)

Style of government: Constitutional Monarchy

Inflation: 2.6% year-over-year in December

Unemployment: Among graduates, 25%, Total rate at 9.1%

Social media: Very much a serious part of youth culture

Conclusion: Morocco’s government has already undergone democratic reforms, so any political pressure would likely be responded to in a similar manner, with more reforms. Those very reforms have been suggested by a government commission, so Morocco seems pretty safe at the moment, prepared to adjust if things get out of hand.

Jordan: King Abdullah tries to get ahead of the crisis

Investments to watch: SPDR S&P Emerging Middle East & Africa ETF (GAF)

Style of government: Constitutional monarchy, incorporating limited democracy

Inflation: Jordanian inflation up 6.1% year-over-year in December, 1.2% month-over-month

Unemployment: Around 14%

Social media: 38-39% of Jordanians have internet access

Conclusion: Jordan is already experiencing protests related to these factors. The government is responding by providing food and fuel subsidies. King Abdullah has sacked his government and appointed a new one with reforms priority number one. Whether the government moves fast enough to implement these reforms will be the deciding factor in the future size of protests and threat to the regime.

Syria: President pushing for reform already

Investments to watch: None

Style of government: Single party authoritarian, President Bashar al-Assad

Inflation: Government intends to take action to lower prices

Unemployment: 8.1% in 2009

Social media: Facebook still openly used by the public, searches for Egypt on computers, however, crash them.

Conclusion: The economic situation is not as dire in Syria as in other countries. The regime is, arguably, more ruthless than its Egyptian counterpart. The President believes his partnership with Iran and support for the Palestinian cause will keep him safe, and he’s already pushing for reforms. Syria’s state may be too powerful for the little protest movement developing to flourish.

Saudi Arabia: Massive military strength may be enough to quell social dissent

Investments to watch: WisdomTree Middle East Dividend Fund (GULF), Market Vectors Gulf States ETF (MES) Style of government: Absolute MonarchyInflation: Inflation at 5.4% in December, down from November 

Unemployment: 10% in 2010

Social media: 3 million Saudi Arabians are on Facebook, with Twitter usage increasing quickly

Conclusion: Saudi Arabia has seen some small protests, but over the government response to flooding, not rising costs and unemployment. There are concerns on the streets that the country doesn’t have proper infrastructure and is recklessly spending its oil riches. The repressive regime is unlikely to fall under these smaller concerns, but its youth unemployment problem (42%) and religious minority (Shia) could eventually exert real pressure.

Iran: Could things kick off again in Tehran?

Investments to watch: None Style of government: Islamic Republic, with democratically elected representatives. Less than certain how “democratic” elections truly are. Ruled by Supreme Leader, who is a both religious and political leader.Inflation: Inflation at 13.5% in early 2010, may be more than double that level 

Unemployment: 14.6% as of August

Social media: Significant penetration of both Twitter and Facebook. Government showed willingness to crackdown on use during previous protest movement.

Conclusion: Iran crushed its most recent protest movement. If inflation continues to rise, the sentiment may become more popular, and Egypt’s revolution could inspire Iranians back to the streets.

Libya: Time may be running out for Gaddafi

Investments to watch: None

Style of government: Authoritarian, led by Muammar al-Gaddafi

Inflation: CPI up 2.654% in 2009

Unemployment: Highest unemployment rate in North Africa

Social media: The Muslim Brotherhood has a Facebook page. Unknown levels of internet penetration.

Conclusion: Libya would seem a good bet. It’s stuck between revolutionary Tunisia and Egypt. Its leader is regarded as an international eccentric. He wants his son to take over, and the public’s not pleased. Financial squalor is probably worse than estimated. Whether or not social media could assist is unknown, but Libya is a likely future front in the spillover.

Yemen: Serious unemployment problem and an Al Qaeda threat

Investments to watch: None Style of government: Presidential democracy, elections not entirely freeInflation: No data of note, though likely higher that the 5.4% projection 

Unemployment: 40%

Social media: 2.2 million internet users, population 23.4 million

Conclusion: Yemen has the deepest unemployment problem in the region, and likely a serious inflation problem too. There’s a large terrorist group in the country, as it is a headquarters for Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. Protests are already significant. There is a sincere likelihood of change here, or, and this might be worse, further radicalization of the population.

Pakistan: Democracy under threat as state remains unstable

Investments to watch: Claymore’s BNY Mellon Frontier Markets ETF (FRN) Style of government: Democratic republicInflation: Over 15% 

Unemployment: 14% in 2010 (estimate)

Social media: Heavy use, government has banned use over the depiction of Mohamed before.

Conclusion: Pakistan has a serious economic crisis, a weakness of state shown in recent flooding, confused positions over the U.S. and Taliban, as well as large anti-government, pro-Muslim fundamentalist forces.

The potential for change is there. The biggest power source remains the military, however, and another coup, similar to the one that brought Musharaf to power, could occur.

I may not agree to all the reasons in the above, and the way I see it, the domino effect has rolled and any/every country that requires change will change for the good of its people and for the good of all Earthizens.

“The most indubitable feature of a revolution is the direct interference of the masses in historic events. In ordinary times, the state–be it monarchical or democratic–elevates itself above the nation, and history is made by specialists in that line of business–kings, ministers, bureaucrats, parliamentarians, journalists. But at those crucial moments when the old order becomes no longer endurable to the masses, they break over the barriers excluding them from the political arena, sweep aside their traditional representatives, and create by their own interference the initial groundwork for a new regime…

The history of a revolution is for us, first of all, a history of the forcible entrance of the masses into the realm of rulership over their own destiny.”

Leon Trotsky

A Revolting World

The Forces of Reaction never rest
by John Kozy

Many in many lands are demonstrating against their governments. Some claim that people everywhere are revolting and that a worldwide revolution is imminent. Even both the orthodox and heterodox presses are all atwitter. But it is far easier to bring about a successful revolution than it is to build and preserve a humane, functioning government. The forces of reaction never rest, and they have managed to undo most of history’s people’s revolutions. Revolutionaries must recognize that their first task is to defend their newly formed governments from reactionaries, for once reactionaries get their feet in the door, they will not stop until the revolution is undone.

Read further>


Revolution Is About Critical Mass

What would it take for me to join a revolution?

“Personally, I admit that I have no real experience in an actual revolution. In fact, I’m ashamed to admit that I’ve never participated in any movement or protest, big or small, ever, in my life. But you see, I never had any need to, or at least I didn’t know I had a need to. Today, as I struggle to make ends meet and to try to prevent my life, my family and my family’s future from going all to hell, I have started to feel the pain and it’s not going away. And for all of you hardcore veteran activists and protesters out there in the vanguard wondering where the hell the masses are that are needed for your revolution, I think I can tell you. They’ve been here with me, hiding out, safe and sound in our ‘other’ world. But times are changing and struggle is occurring and I and many, many others are starting to feel the pain and it’s not going away. So please hang on and hold your ground. We’re coming.” Kelly Coote

Read further >

I salute my Egyptian brothers and sisters.
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